There were a couple of interesting by-elections held last night.
FELTHAM AND HESTON
The one that attracted most attention was the Parliamentary by-election in Feltham and Heston, but the media largely ignored even this contest and the turn-out was very low. There was little interest as it is a fairly safe Labour seat. Having said that the Conservatives controlled it for a period in the mid 1980s, although the demographics have changed since then.
In the 2010 General Election the BNP contested this seat and obtained 3.5% of the poll and 1,714 votes. At that time there would have been a good chance of a saved deposit in Feltham and Heston had Nick Griffin not stabbed the Party in the back by running off to the police and the world’s media like a cur dog with his phoney tale of threats to kill him.
This was the result in the by-election:
Labour - 12, 639 votes (54.4%)
Conservative – 6,436 votes (27.7%)
Liberal Democrats – 1,364 votes (5.9%)
UKIP – 1,276 votes (5.5%)
BNP – 540 votes (2.3%)
Green – 426 votes (1.8%)
English Democrats (Roger Cooper) – 322 votes (1.4%)
London People Before Profit – 128 votes (0.6%)
Bus-Pass Elvis Party – 93 votes (0.4%)
The BNP vote collapsed by over 50% in percentage terms, despite (or perhaps partly due to) putting great store in having its dilapidated ‘Truth Truck’ chug around the constituency for nearly a week.
I believe the BNP are patting themselves on their backs because they got about 40% more votes than the English Democrats.
This is the first time the EDs have contested this seat and put minimal resources into the campaign - just to get the name out there. The ED result isn’t too bad at all bearing this in mind.
In a campaign where the ability of a minor party to ‘sell itself’ is minimal, it is obvious that a party with greater name recognition, even a terribly tarnished and toxic name, will tend to get more votes than an unknown quantity. In this election the EDs were an unknown quantity. In such contests the BNP’s name recognition will carry it through. The BNP should have got at least three or four times the EDs vote here, not just 40% more.
However the BNP has no ability to garner greater levels of support from the silent majority even if it had the nous or ability to campaign thoroughly. Its image is irredeemably broken. It is stuck in a rut.
The only reason the BNP were mentioned at all in the news following the declaration of this result was to draw attention to the fact that UKIP had overtaken them. This result will have ratcheted down the residual BNP hard core support base. They have developed the reputation with the public as being losers.
This result also amply demonstrates, as if it were necessary, that the BNP has absolutely no chance whatsoever of getting anyone elected to the GLA next year.
The BNP are the past.
Their predicament reminds me of the words of that Rolling Stones song (memorably covered by Chris Farlowe), ‘Out of Time’:
You don't know what's going on
You've been away for far too long
You can't come back and think you are still mine
You're out of touch, my baby
My poor discarded baby
I said, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
You thought you were a clever girl
Giving up your social whirl
But you can't come back and be the first in line, oh no
You're obsolete my baby
My poor old-fashioned baby
I said baby, baby, baby you're out of time
Obsolete sums it up.
BILLERICAY
The last time the BNP contested an election in Basildon, was in July 2010, when they obtained only 4% in Nethermayne ward. In May 2010 the BNP had obtained 9% in this ward and 16% in 2008.
Everywhere the BNP vote is going in one direction –down.
Within Basildon, Billericay has always been difficult territory. For example in Billericay West the BNP polled just 3% in 2010 and 7% in 2008.
Basildon Branch of the BNP (which no longer exists) was very hard working at a time when the Eastern Region of the BNP was working like one of those well oiled machines. In September 2009 it contested a by-election for Billericay South West ward in Billericay Town Council. This is about half of the Basildon District Council Billericay West ward.
The result was curious as the Conservatives did not contest the election and this is a very strong area for the Conservatives. UKIP actually won as follows:
UK Independence Party – 480 votes (57%)
Labour – 266 votes (32%)
British National Party – 95 votes (11%)
Yesterday there was another by-election in Billericay South West Ward. This time the result was:
Conservatives - 365 votes (59.2%)
UKIP – 202 votes (32.7%)
English Democrats (Tony Gladwin) – 50 votes (8.1%)
The English Democrats at their first outing in this area did better than the BNP in 2008 and 2010. It was not far behind the BNP result in 2009 when the Conservatives did not contest the seat. Furthermore UKIP are entrenched there now as they have a local councillor.
The BNP local election results since the 2010 election have never been better than previous results. They have all been worse. Only the EDs have been able to buck this trend.
The Billericay result is quite interesting and shows what can be done with a little work. The local English Democrat activists did not run a super sophisticated campaign - it just consisted of a couple of leaflet drops. It shows that if the English Democrats manage to establish a bit of local identity then they can get reasonable votes. In fact this EDs result compares very favourably with that obtained by the BNP at its height. There is an overlap between those who voted for the BNP when it had a degree of popularity with those who would potentially vote for the EDs.
These two by-elections illustrate what I have been saying for some time.
In many ways the Billericay result tells us much more than Feltham and Heston. Local grassroots politics is the way ahead. The EDs can make real impact in that arena through implementing more sophisticated local tactics and it can make its distinctive brand of nationalism incredibly popular. By developing from the bottom up the EDs profile and name recognition will be steadily enhanced until in short order it will really start to take off.
The EDs are the future.
